![]() ![]() One of Germany’s leading journalists made this unflattering remark: “She hardly exists as leader of the executive. As a result, she is seen by many as a lame duck. Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she would not run again in 2021, and she has already withdrawn as party leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU). The federal government will be mostly incapable of showing leadership in domestic and international affairs this year. The party system will become even more fragmented and the overall governance system even more obstructive. I expect the government to become even more debilitated, perhaps even to the brink of collapse. In my last year’s report on the German economy, I described the country as “ the exhausted man of Europe.” The very same title could be used for this report on German politics and leadership in 2020. This new series of GIS reports examines how effectively countries are ruled and the consequences of governing systems for economies, societies and nations’ development prospects. The Greens are likely to become kingmakers after the 2021 federal elections.The Christian Democrats may survive, but will need to seek new allies to govern.There are no strong candidates that could succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel.(Many political observers in Germany speculate that Schröder engineered an early election in part to force the CDU to go with Merkel rather than give the party time to replace her with a stronger candidate.) As recently as February, the Times of London declared that “Angela Merkel’s chances of becoming chancellor are fading.” A weak administration is hardly the best vehicle for pushing through painful reforms. Until Schröder’s election call, in fact, her star was on the wane in December she won her third election as party chair by the slimmest margin of her career. She rose to power by aggressively knocking off established party members, and after a series of political blunders (most notably her vigorous opposition to Turkish membership in the European Union, which drew loud protest from minority voters), Merkel has come under attack from opponents bent on payback. On the surface, the debate is over the extent of CDU reforms, but it is also a proxy for a personal war over Merkel herself. ![]() Voter schizophrenia is exacerbating tensions within the CDU, which is actually an alliance between the more free-market-oriented Christian Democrats, from which Merkel hails, and the more economically liberal Bavarian Christian Social Union. It is consensus-bound and thus veto-driven.” “Germany is a corporatist construction, with power finely balanced among society’s forces. “She is no Thatcher, because Thatcherism requires first-past-the-post voting, which magnifies the edge of the ruling party,” says Josef Joffe, editor and publisher of the weekly paper Die Zeit. * Thus, the chancellor is at the mercy of myriad factions and local power centers, any of whom can upset a risky reform package. But whereas in Britain and elsewhere the party with a plurality of votes can still form the government (known as “first-past-the-post”), Germany requires an absolute majority before a party can take power, meaning that the power of the leading party is usually diluted by its need to form a coalition with smaller parties. Compared with Britain or France, Germany’s political structure gives much more power to the states and quasi-public institutions-such as unions-at the expense of the chancellor, who, as in Britain, is chosen not by direct election but by the winning party. As Schröder and his predecessors can attest, it’s tough to be chancellor.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |